This talk is a follow up of a talk I gave first on September 10 at the Physics Department of Buffalo University, about predicting Trump victory on November 3, 2020 (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_PDot-b8eE). The prediction results from a model of opinion dynamics I have been developing during several decades within the field of sociophysics,
The same model has yielded the 2016 Trump victory. However, while the activation of frozen prejudices was the main ingredient of last Trump victory, this time it will not work. What is going to make the outcome in each swing state are the tiny differences between the respective proportions of stubborn voters for Trump and Biden. In addition, the prejudice of fear will combined to the one about individual stand facing a danger like with Covid-19, reckless or cautious, could reinforce or weaken the stubborn effect. I will review associated scenarios. The model conclusion is still Trump victory in today election. A preprint of a paper has been posted on arXiv (
https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10602).
Zoom-Link zu dieser Session:https://zoom.us/j/92379163058
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